by Jasper van Vliet and Hedwig van Delden
This paper presents an activity based land-use model, where activities represent quantitative information, such as population or jobs. These activities are added to a constraint cellular automaton (CA) model, which is now constrained in terms of their activities instead of their land use. The CA transition rules distribute activities based on the neighbouring activity distribution, the land use distribution, a diseconomies of scale term, some location properties and a stochastic perturbation term. Land use is then allocated according to the new activity distribution. Hence land use and activities are mutually dependent and each cell has two values: a land use state and a vector of activities. The activity based model is tested to simulate population dynamics and land-use changes in Portugal. Simulation results show that the model can produce realistic land use dynamics. Moreover, we argue that the inclusion of activities closer resembles the process of real world land-use dynamics and offers opportunities for integrated modelling due to the availability of quantitative information.
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