by Hans Günter Brauch
This paper analyzes the relationship between urbanization – in relation with population growth and climate change – (as causes) and natural disasters as outcomes of environmental stress for the Mediterranean region from 1900 to 2001 – with a specific focus at three case studies in Turkey, Algeria and Egypt. It includes trends of urbanization up to 2015/2030, for population growth up to 2050, and projections of climate change impact models until 2100 that will increase both the vulnerability to and impact of natural disasters. Based on a medium definition of the Mediterranean space (figure 1) that includes all Mediterranean riparian countries plus Portugal, Jordan and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (Brauch 2001, 2001a, 2003) this paper addresses both the increasing vulnerability of major cities to geophysical and hydro-meteorological disasters due to rapid urbanization combined with extreme poverty in most countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
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