A set of reports and papers in 470 pages.
Here you read the introduction to the first paper:
This paper provides an overview of recent trends in international trade and transportation. The goal is two-fold. First, changes in international trade and integration are documented, that have particularly interesting consequences for transportation demand. Second, we see how international transportation demand itself has changed, and provide a forward look to likely future changes. The basic insights of the paper are these. International trade has grown rapidly, driven primarily by growth in manufactures, and growth in the “extensive” and “quality” margins of trade. The composition of trade has changed in important ways that affect transportation demand. Goods are lighter, and manufacturing exports embody a growing share of foreign inputs. But for all the talk about a new era of globalisation, trade frictions remain significant: most firms serve only domestic markets; borders still matter; distance maintains a surprisingly strong grip on trade; and trade spells are very short, especially for “new” and small-valued flows.
While ocean cargo continues to dominate tonnages shipped, airborne cargo is growing rapidly and, despite its much greater cost, represents a remarkably large and growing share of trade by value. Why has air transport grown so rapidly? Four factors seem especially important. Timely delivery has become more valuable, the absolute and relative cost of air shipping has declined precipitously, oods are getting lighter, and consumer incomes are rising, especially at the upper end of the income distribution. Looking forward, airplanes will become only more useful because of their particular value in accomplishing four goals: coordinating far-flung production processes; reaching distant markets and the interior regions of geographically large countries; hedging uncertain demand and testing “new markets”.
While ocean cargo continues to dominate tonnages shipped, airborne cargo is growing rapidly and, despite its much greater cost, represents a remarkably large and growing share of trade by value. Why has air transport grown so rapidly? Four factors seem especially important. Timely delivery has become more valuable, the absolute and relative cost of air shipping has declined precipitously, oods are getting lighter, and consumer incomes are rising, especially at the upper end of the income distribution. Looking forward, airplanes will become only more useful because of their particular value in accomplishing four goals: coordinating far-flung production processes; reaching distant markets and the interior regions of geographically large countries; hedging uncertain demand and testing “new markets”.
more about globalization:
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