MODE CHOICE ANALYSIS: THE DATA, THE MODELS AND FUTURE AHEAD

By Minal, Ch. and Ravi Sekhar

Mode choice is one of the most vital stages in transportation planning process and it has direct impact on the policy making decisions. Mode choice models deals very closely with the human choice making behaviour and thus continues to attract researchers for further exploration of commuter’s choice making process. The objective of this study is to carryout detailed review on various modeling methods of mode choice analysis and bottlenecks associated with the same. The factors that affect the psyche of the travelers have been discussed; further various types of data required and their method of collection has been briefed up. This paper particularly emphasizes on statistical mode choice models such as multinomial logit and probit models as well as recent advanced soft computing techniques such as Artificial Neural Network models (ANN) and Fuzzy approach model that are employed for modal split analysis. Comparative analysis were made among various modeling techniques for modeling the complex mode choice of behaviour of models carried out by various researchers in the literature and a discussion on the need of future hybrid soft computing models has been attempted.

Read more

more about urban travel behavior:

USING STRUCTURAL EQUATIONS MODELLING TO UNRAVEL THE INFLUENCE OF LAND USE PATTERNS ON TRAVEL BEHAVIOR OF URBAN ADULT WORKERS OF PUGET SOUND REGION

Feasibility of Voluntary Reduction of Private Car Use

What if you live in the wrong neighborhood? The impact of residential neighborhood type dissonance on distance traveled

Vehicle Miles Traveled and the Built Environment: Evidence from Vehicle Safety Inspection Data

Residential Self-Selection and Its Effects on Urban Commute Travels in Iranian Cities Compared to US, UK, and Germany

MODELING THE TRAVEL BEHAVIOR IMPACTS OF MICRO-SCALE LAND USE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS

Determinants of Automobile Use: A Comparison of Germany and the U.S

GIS MODELLING IN THEMATIC MAPPING OF LAND COVER CHANGES IN THE FOREST-STEPPE REGION OF RUSSIA

By ELIZAVETA KHAZIEVA

Nowadays there are many remote sensing methods and tools, which help to deeply understand the land cover processes on the large area without field researches. The cartographic modeling is one feasible way to analyze and deeply understand the data and processes which take place in the region. A combination of different data (such as remote sensing data, statistical information, historical maps and others), a knowledge of the territory ensures integral investigation, and a better demonstration of the result. There are many different approaches and models, one of them being thematic cartography. This is part of cartography focusing on natural phenomena, social, political and economic issues, combining visualization and exploration methods, and targeting and supporting different groups of users (Tikunov, 1997). Models are useful and used in a vastarray of GIS applications, from simple evaluation to the prediction of future landscapes. Cartographic modelling is a general methodology for the analysis and synthesis of geographical data. It employs what amount to an algebra in which single-factor maps are treated as variables that can be flexibly manipulated using an integrated set of functions (Paul et. al., 1991). The main trends of landscape changes is croplands decreasing especially in the 1990s, the situation beginning to improve by 2000 – 2006s. It probably has to do with the reforming procedure which had been started since the 1900s. Around 2000, the economic situation in Russia had stabilized again (Ioffe et al., 2008). For a better understanding of the impacts caused by political and economic developments on land use, further studies are necessary. The developed model has to be amended by adding some socio-economic data. It would help to better understand the process in a particular area and would allow to emphasize the drivers of changes more precisely.

Read more

More about GIS applications:

Sustainable Urban Growth Management Using What-If?

Monitoring and modeling the urban growth of mid-size cities in Iran by Markov model: the case study of Zanjan City

Measurement and Monitoring of Urban Sprawl in a Rapidly Growing Region Using Entropy

URBAN ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT: MONITORING, GIS, AND MODELING

GIS-based urban modelling: practices, problems, and prospects

A GIS Approach to Evaluating Streetscape and Neighborhood Walkability

URBAN CHANGE MONITORING USING GIS AND REMOTE SENSING TOOLS IN KATHMANDU VALLEY (NEPAL)

An integrative GIS and remote sensing model for place-based urban vulnerability analysis

 

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGES IN CAR OWNERSHIP PATTERNS

By Anna Matas and Josep-LLuís Raymond

The contributions of this paper are twofold: On the one hand, the paper analyses the factors determining the growth in car ownership in Spain over the last two decades, and, on the other, the paper provides empirical evidence for a controversial methodological issue. From a methodological point of view, the paper compares the two alternative decision mechanisms used for modelling car ownership: ordered-response versus unordered-response mechanisms. A discrete choice model is estimated at three points in time: 1980, 1990 and 2000. The study concludes that on the basis of forecasting performance, the multinomial logit model and the ordered probit model are almost undistinguishable. As for the empirical results, it can be emphasised that income elasticity is not constant and declines as car ownership increases. Besides, households living in rural areas are less sensitive than those living in urban areas. Car ownership is also sensitive to the quality of public transport for those living in the largest cities. The results also confirmed the existence of a generation effect, which will vanish around the year 2020, a weak life-cycle effect, and a positive effect of employment on the number of cars per household. Finally, the change in the estimated coefficients over time reflects an increase in mobility needs and, consequently, an increase in car ownership.

Read more

More about urban transportation planning:

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation

UNDERSTANDING PERCEPTIONS OF ACCESSIBILITY AND MOBILITY THROUGH STRUCTURATION THEORY

How the Built Environment Influences Non-Work Travel: Theoretical and Empirical Essays 

Determinants of Automobile Use: A Comparison of Germany and the U.S.

Challenges of urban transport in developing countries- a summary

A dynamic formulation for car ownership modeling

By Cinzia Cirillo y, Renting Xu , and Fabian Bastinyz

Discrete choice models are commonly used in transportation planning and modeling, but their theoretical basis and applications have been mainly developed in a static context. In this paper, we propose an estimation technique for analyzing the impact of technological changes on the dynamic of consumer demand. The proposed research presents a dynamic formulation that explicitly models market evolution and accounts for consumers' expectations of future product characteristics. The timing of consumers' decisions is formulated as a regenerative optimal stopping problem where the agent must decide on the optimal time of purchase. This model frame will be further improved by modeling the choice from a set of di erentiated products whose characteristics randomly change over time. The framework proposed is developed and applied in the context of car ownership.

Read more

mroe about urban transportation planning:

USING STRUCTURAL EQUATIONS MODELLING TO UNRAVEL THE INFLUENCE OF LAND USE PATTERNS ON TRAVEL BEHAVIOR OF URBAN ADULT WORKERS OF PUGET SOUND REGION

MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF TRANSPORTATION AND NETWORKS

Addressing Urban Transportation Equity in the United States

Transportation Policy for Poverty Reduction and Social Equity

A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN POPULATION AND TRANSPORT ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Climate change and urban transportation systems

Vehicle Miles Traveled and the Built Environment: Evidence from Vehicle Safety Inspection Data

A THEORETICAL APPROACH TO CAPABILITIES OF THE TRADITIONAL URBAN FORM IN PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation

By Committee on Climate Change and U.S. Transportation
Transportation Research Board
Division on Earth and Life Studies

The world’s leading climate scientists have reached consensus that human activity in the form of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is warming the planet in ways that will have profound and unsettling impacts on natural resources, energy use, ecosystems, economic activity, and potentially quality of life. The earth’s climate is always in a state of flux, but what is of concern today is the rapid rate of change and the unabated contribution of human activity to its occurrence. Many studies have already examined the potential impacts of climate change on broad sectors of the economy, such as agriculture and forestry, but few have studied the impacts on transportation.
The primary focus of this report is on the consequences of climate change1 for the infrastructure and operations of U.S. transportation.2 The report provides transportation professionals with an overview of the scientific consensus on those current and future climate changes of particular relevance to U.S. transportation, including the limitations of present scientific understanding as to their precise timing, magnitude, and geographic location; identifies potential impacts on U.S. transportation and adaptation options; and offers recommendations for both research and actions that can be taken to prepare for climate change. The report also summarizes previous work on strategies for reducing transportation-related emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2)—the primary GHG—that contribute to climate change, a relatively wellresearched area (see Appendix B).
Climate change will have significant impacts on transportation, affecting the way U.S. transportation professionals plan, design, construct, operate, and maintain infrastructure. Decisions taken today, particularly those related to the redesign and retrofitting of existing or the location and design of new transportation infrastructure, will affect how well the system adapts to climate change far into the future. Focusing on the problem now should help avoid costly future investments and disruptions to operations. The primary objective of this report is to provide guidance for transportation decision makers on how best to proceed.

Read more

Similar papers:

The impact of climate change and weather on transport: An overview of empirical findings

MITIGATING URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT BY URBAN DESIGN: FORMS AND MATERIALS

Daytime urban heat island effect in high-rise and high-density residential developments in Hong Kong

Asian cities at highest risk to climate change, study says

Sustainable Transport and Climate Change: Environmentally Experiences and lessons from community initiatives

The impact of climate change and weather on transport: An overview of empirical findings

By Mark J. Koetse and Piet Rietveld

This paper presents a survey of the empirical literature on the effects of climate change and weather conditions on the transport sector. Despite mixed evidence on many issues, several patterns can be observed. On a global scale especially shifts in tourism and agricultural production due to increased temperatures may lead to shifts in passenger and freight transport. The predicted rise in sea levels and the associated increase in frequency and intensity of storm surges and flooding incidences may furthermore be some of the most worrying consequences of climate change, especially for coastal areas. Climate change related shifts in weather patterns might also cause infrastructure disruptions. Clear patterns are that precipitation affects road safety by increasing accident frequency but decreasing severity. Precipitation also increases congestion, especially during peak hours. Furthermore, an increased frequency of low water levels may considerably increase costs of inland waterway transport. Despite these insights, the net impact of climate change on generalised costs of the various transport modes are uncertain and ambiguous, with a possible exception for inland waterway transport.

Read more

More on climate change:

Becoming Greenest: Recommendations for a More Sustainable Washington, D.C.

Climate change and urban transportation systems

MITIGATING URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT BY URBAN DESIGN: FORMS AND MATERIALS

Daytime urban heat island effect in high-rise and high-density residential developments in Hong Kong

Asian cities at highest risk to climate change, study says

Sustainable Transport and Climate Change: Environmentally Experiences and lessons from community initiatives

 

Evaluation of Urban Sprawl Speed and Intensity Based on International Urbanization. Example from a Mexican City

By Houshmand E. MASOUMI and Daniela ROQUE

Urban sprawl characteristics and forms have been investigated thoroughly, but studies are often at a country or a region level. The related observations fail to compare sprawl in cities from different continents or cultures. This paper tries to do this by quantifying sprawl in a mid-sized city in north-western Mexico (Ensenada) between 1980 and 2014 by means of Shannon Entropy and comparing it with 12 different cities from India, Iran, Portugal, Nepal, China, and Canada. The comparisons are conducted separately targeting sprawl intensity and speed. Shannon Entropy means are compared to represent differences in sprawl intensity, while Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) is applied to model and compare regression coefficients that represent sprawl speed. Homogeneity of regression slopes indicates differences in sprawl speed of Ensenada with the compared cities. The results reveal that Ensenada is more sprawled than 7 out of 12 of the observed cities, but continues to spread outward with the same speed as most of the compared cities. Such international comparisons on sprawl can on the one hand give an overview of the differences in sprawl characteristics in cities around the world. On the other hand, such investigations can provide local governments, such as Ensenada, insights to shortcomings and weak points of their land use policy. Concerning the latter case, the case-study city of this research, which represents about 20 mid-sized cities of Northern Mexico, has to take urban and suburban sprawl containment policies.

Ensenada and its buffer zones between 1980
and 2014. Source: based of the data originated from IMIP

Read more

More about urban sprawl:

Applying a CA-based model to explore land-use policy scenarios to contain sprawl in Thessaloniki, Greece

Urban Sprawl Pattern Recognition Using Remote Sensing and GIS – Case Study Shiraz City, Iran

URBAN SPRAWL IN MID-SIZED CITIES OF MENA, EVIDENCE FROM YAZD AND KASHAN IN CENTRAL IRAN

A scale-adjusted measure of ‘‘Urban sprawl’’ using nighttime satellite imagery

Measurement and Monitoring of Urban Sprawl in a Rapidly Growing Region Using Entropy

The characteristics, causes and costs of urban sprawl: a lecture by Reid Ewing

A new approach to the Iranian urban planning, using neo-traditional development

URBAN SPRAWL IN IRANIAN CITIES AND ITS DIFFERENCES WITH THE WESTERN SPRAWL

USING STRUCTURAL EQUATIONS MODELLING TO UNRAVEL THE INFLUENCE OF LAND USE PATTERNS ON TRAVEL BEHAVIOR OF URBAN ADULT WORKERS OF PUGET SOUND REGION

By João de Abreu e Silva and Konstadinos G. Goulias

This paper addresses the relationship between travel behavior and land use patterns using a Structural Equations Modeling framework.
The proposed model structure in this paper is by design heavily influenced by a model developed for Lisbon (1) to allow comparisons. In that paper the existence of significant effects of land use patterns in travel behavior was found. The travel behavior variables included in the model are multidimensional and comprehend both short term, number of trips by mode and trip scheduling, and long term, home location, car and pass ownership, mobility decisions. The modeled land use variables measure the levels of urban intensity and density, diversity, both in terms of types of uses and the mix between jobs and inhabitants and the public transport supply levels,. The land use patterns are described both at the residence and employment zones.. 

In order to explicitly account for self selection bias the land use variables are explicitly modeled as functions of socioeconomic attributes of individuals and their households.
The Seattle findings are presented and then compared them to the Lisbon findings. Many commonalities between the two environments were found but also many important differences.

Read more

More about transportation modeling:

MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF TRANSPORTATION AND NETWORKS

MODELING THE TRAVEL BEHAVIOR IMPACTS OF MICRO-SCALE LAND USE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS

Mobility biographies. A new perspective for understanding travel behaviour

What if you live in the wrong neighborhood? The impact of residential neighborhood type dissonance on distance traveled

Vehicle Miles Traveled and the Built Environment: Evidence from Vehicle Safety Inspection Data

Determinants of Automobile Use: A Comparison of Germany and the U.S.

The influence of neighbourhood design on travel behaviour: Empirical evidence from North East England

MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF TRANSPORTATION AND NETWORKS

By Anna Nagurney

In this chapter, we provide the foundations of the rigorous formulation, analysis, and solution of transportation network problems. We discuss user-optimization, which corresponds to decentralized decision-making, and system-optimization, which corresponds to centralized decision-making where the central controller can route the traffic in an optimal manner. We describe a spectrum of increasingly sophisticated models and also relate transportation networks to other network application domains in which flows (and associated decision-making) are essential, such as the Internet, supply chains, electric power distribution and generation networks, as well as financial networks. Finally, we demonstrate how the importance of transportation network components, that is, nodes and links can be identified (and ranked) through a recently proposed transportation network efficiency measure and accompanying component importance definition. Examples are included throughout the chapter for illustrative purposes.

read more

more about urban transportation:

Transportation Policy for Poverty Reduction and Social Equity

Addressing Urban Transportation Equity in the United States

A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN POPULATION AND TRANSPORT ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Societal trends, mobility behaviour and sustainable transport in Europe and North America

Vehicle Miles Traveled and the Built Environment: Evidence from Vehicle Safety Inspection Data

Residential Self-Selection and Its Effects on Urban Commute Travels in Iranian Cities Compared to US, UK, and Germany

MODELING THE TRAVEL BEHAVIOR IMPACTS OF MICRO-SCALE LAND USE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS

Addressing Urban Transportation Equity in the United States

By Robert D. Bullard

Transportation touches almost every aspect of our lives and plays a pivotal role in shaping human interactions, economic mobility, and sustainability. Transportation provides access to opportunity and serves as a key component in addressing poverty, unemployment, and equal opportunity goals. This article examines the inequity that exists in the United States when it comes to transit, as the benefits from transportation advancements and investments are not distributed equally among communities, making transportation equity an issue of civil rights and social justice. This article frames transportation issues as a continuation of the civil rights movement and the wrestling with differential treatment that goes back to Plessy v. Ferguson and later Brown v. Board of Education and Rosa Parks. Communities today are disadvantaged when it comes to investments, enhancements and access to transportation resources, detailed in the article in various examples of disparate transportation spending. Measures taken to erase transportation inequities, including government response and fallout from the environmental justice movement attempt to eliminate unequal enforcement of the nation’s transportation systems and policies and combat burgeoning issues such as suburban sprawl and the shift of many jobs to the suburbs where public transportation is inadequate. Transportation continues to be divided along racial lines, but it is a key ingredient in building economically viable and sustainable communities and with the policy recommendations detailed in the article’s conclusion, these inequities can be addressed.

Read more

more about public transportation:

Transportation Policy for Poverty Reduction and Social Equity

Examining the Impacts of Residential Self-Selection on Travel Behaviour: A Focus on Empirical Findings

TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE URBAN TRANSPORT SYSTEM: PLANNING FOR NON-MOTORIZED VEHICLES IN CITIES

Challenges of urban transport in developing countries- a summary

A Review and Critique of NJ TRANSIT, Bicycle Access Policies

A Methodology for Incorporating Fuel Price Impacts into Short-term Transit Ridership Forecasts

Los Angeles Streetcars: A Push To Bring Back The Rich History Of Streetcars Begins In Downtown LA

Transportation Policy for Poverty Reduction and Social Equity

By Debra Efroymson and Maruf Rahman

Most people would agree that reducing poverty is an important goal, as is reducing the gap between the rich and poor. However, exactly how to achieve these goals is a matter of much debate. One often-neglected aspect is transport.
Transport is a key aspect of life, affecting us not only when we travel, but throughout our days. Our peace and quiet are disturbed by car horns. Our air is polluted from vehicular emissions. Our neighborhoods are given over to moving and parked cars, leaving less room for ourselves and our children to walk, bicycle, and play.
In addition to these quality of life and environment issues is that of economics. Investments made in roads take away from investments in public transport and facilities for non-motorized travel, such as by foot or bicycle. For those who can’t afford travel expenses, education and jobs may become inaccessible. For others, travel to and from work represents a heavy expense that contributes to keeping them in poverty. Reducing the travel expenses of the poor could thus help them to improve their standard of living.
This paper discusses various transport options and their advantages and disadvantages, and makes suggestions for improving mobility of the majority while simultaneously decreasing poverty and increasing social equity.

read more

more about public urban transportation:

A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN POPULATION AND TRANSPORT ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Climate change and urban transportation systems

A THEORETICAL APPROACH TO CAPABILITIES OF THE TRADITIONAL URBAN FORM IN PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION

How the Built Environment Influences Non-Work Travel: Theoretical and Empirical Essays 

MODELING THE CHOICE CONTINUUM: AN INTEGRATED MODEL OF RESIDENTIAL LOCATION, AUTO OWNERSHIP, BICYCLE OWNERSHIP, AND COMMUTE TOUR MODE CHOICE DECISIONS

Examining the Impacts of Residential Self-Selection on Travel Behaviour: A Focus on Empirical Findings

TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE URBAN TRANSPORT SYSTEM: PLANNING FOR NON-MOTORIZED VEHICLES IN CITIES

Challenges of urban transport in developing countries- a summary